(Published on RealMoneyPro.com on 9/11/17.)
HD Supply Holdings (HDS) provides equipment and products for residential construction and remodeling, as well as maintenance and janitorial supplies. The stock formed an inverse head-and-shoulders bottom over the last three months below a horizontal neckline in the $32.50 area. Last week it moved up and through neckline resistance, perhaps in anticipation of the need for its products in the recovery process in Florida following Hurricane Irma.
The daily chart shows the stock trading in a triangle pattern in the first half of the year above support in the $39 area. This support level would turn out to be the 62% Fibonacci retracement level of the current 2017 high and low range. The dramatic gap lower in June formed the left shoulder of the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. A lower low the following month marked the head of the pattern, and the August higher low delineated the right shoulder.
Daily moving average convergence/divergence is overlaid on a weekly histogram of the oscillator and is moving above its centerline on both timeframes. These readings suggest improving short- and intermediate-term price momentum. The vortex indicator, designed to identify early shifts in trend direction, is making a bullish crossover. Chaikin money flow has been improving since the right shoulder formed and has moved slightly into positive territory. The inverse head-and-shoulders pattern projects an upside price objective measured by taking the height of the pattern and adding it to the neckline. This targets the area just below the 50% retracement level, which is the lower end of the June gap.
The stock is well positioned both fundamentally and technically, but its performance since the initial breakout has not been that impressive, and it is not participating in today’s broad market rally. A successful retest of the $32.50 resistance-turned-support neckline might be required before taking a long position.