The August low on the weekly chart of the 10- Year US Treasury Yield formed at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the 2013 low and the 2014 high. Currently, the 62% retracement level is being tested, along with the 20 day moving average. The declining average has acted as resistance for most of this… Read More »
The trend on the weekly index charts is higher. They continue to hold above their 10 week (50 day) moving averages, the Russell just barely, and the 10 week averages are above the 40 week (200 day) averages. There are some caution signs on this timeframe, however, like the DOW testing the lower end of… Read More »
The continued decline in treasury yields has taken the ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) fund back down to the lower end of its 2012 and 2013 channel. On the ProShares 20+ Year Treasury (TLT) chart the fund price can be seen tracking above its 50 day moving average this year, and now attempting to… Read More »
The weekly chart shows the move in the iShares Barclays TIPS Bond Fund (TIP) since the beginning of the year. The 50 day moving average made a golden cross above the 200 day average in March, and the TIP has penetrated several layers of Fibonacci resistance. The price momentum indicators are tracking higher and money… Read More »
The 10 year bond yield is back up to the level where it broke down last month. The weekly chart shows the sideways consolidation that began in February and the 50 day moving average crossing below the 200 day average. In May the channel support line merged with a trend line drawn off the July… Read More »
A large engulfing candle formed yesterday on the iShares High Yield Corporate Bond Fund (HYG) daily chart. Its range encompasses the previous week’s trading range, and the candle is a bearish reversal indication. The RSI is breaking down from an overbought condition, and the Money Flow Index, a volume-weighted measure of relative strength, is crossing… Read More »
On May 14th I noted that the 10 year treasury yield was breaking down from a channel consolidation pattern, that projected to the 2.40% area. It’s reached that target, which is also the 38% retracement level of the 2012 low and the 2013 high, and a good technical level for a bounce or more consolidation.
Rick Santelli on CNBC earlier looking at the same thing that I have been highlighting for several weeks now, the potential Fibonacci retracement levels on the 10 year treasury yield chart. He retraces from a base of 1.63 and I use the 1.43 level, the latter being the 2012 low, but together a target zone… Read More »