Monthly Archives: June 2016

Attention! Attention!: Megaphone Top on the Gold Chart

The intraday reversal in the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) in yesterday’s session was surprising but after drawing two simple trend lines it seems to have occurred at the upper end of what could be a broadening top or megaphone formation.


Technical indications were also suggesting the recent run was closing in on an area where it could see a pause or pullback. The relative strength index was nearing an overbought level, while the money flow index, a volume weighted relative strength relative strength measure, was in an overbought condition.
Of particular note was the level of volume today which was 138% greater than the 50 day moving average of volume.

The FOMC Realizes They Had the April Charts Upside Down

The opening sentence of the June FOMC statement was a transposition of the opening sentence of the April statement:

From the April statement –

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March indicates that labor market conditions have improved further even as growth in economic activity appears to have slowed.

and the June statement –

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April indicates that the pace of improvement in the labor market has slowed while growth in economic activity appears to have picked up.

The only explanation is that somebody realized the April charts were accidentally inverted and corrected the error.

Semiconductor ETF Testing Key Support

The Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) is attempting to bounce off a trend line defined by the December 2015 and April 2016 highs. The integrity of this resistance-turned-support level could be a factor in determining the future direction of the fund price. Moving average convergence/divergence is reflecting the recent loss in price momentum, but the accumulation distribution line is still tracking above its 21 period average which reflects positive money flow. The fund may need to retest support and build a base before moving higher, but a lower candle close below the trend line would see a more immediate negative reaction.