Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz said he currently sees a 60 percent chance of the Federal Reserve raising the federal funds rate at its September meeting, but those odds could rise as high as 80 percent.
Monthly Archives: August 2016
It’s Full Speed Ahead for Carnival Shares
The stock is breaking out of a cup and handle pattern and it looks like smooth sailing ahead. Here’s a link to my analysis of the chart published on TheStreet this morning.
Mad Money “Off the Charts” Analysis of Chipotle Mexican Grill
It is always great to be asked to contribute to Mad Money with Jim Cramer and have your analysis of a stock chart highlighted on the “Off the Charts” segment. On Tuesday’s show Jim added his fundamental perspective to my technical take on the Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) chart. Here’s a link to a synopsis of the piece, and “Thanks again, Jim.”
Tesla Takes Out a Key Support Level
Tesla (TSLA) shares closed below a key level of techncial support today, an area that I highlighted earlier in the month.
This zone is significant because of prior price price action but also because it contains both the 50 and 200 day moving averages. The MacD has made a bearish crossover and is tracking lower and below its center line, and the vortex indicator, which is designed to identify early shifts in trend, has made a negative crossover. Chaikin money flow is well into negative territory and suggesting the stock is under distribution.
The close near the session low helped form a decidedly bearish candle and the stock may be on course to retest the lower end of the declining channel pattern. This would complete another cycle of lower swing highs and lower swing lows.
Silver and Gold Performance Re-Balancing
The chart shows the year-to-date performance of the SPDR Gold shares (GLD) relative to the iShares Silver Trust (SLV). Silver has outshone gold over the last four months but that relationship may be moderating as the SLV trust has dropped more than double the percent decline in the GLD shares this month.
Netflix Shares Are Poised for a Volatile Move Higher
Shares of Netflix ($NFLX) are undergoing a volatility “squeeze” and it looks like the condition is going to resolve to the upside. Here’s a link to my multiple timeframe analysis of the charts published on TheStreet this morning.
Thinking of Buying Nike? Here’s How to Time Your Trade
My take on how to enter a long position in Nike (NKE) published on TheStreet this morning.
The Buck Stops Here – Right on Long Term Support
There is a long term zone of support on the weekly chart of the PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish ETF (UUP) between $24.45 and $24.15, and the fund touched the upper end of the zone this week, which is the 38% retracement level of the 2014 and 2015 range, then bounced higher and finished the session near its high. The market may have some conviction that the trajectory of interest rates at this point is higher, but that may not be because the economy is improving or because of the implied correlation between currency and interest rates. No outcome seems binary in our current economic condition.
The weekly candle strength is attributable to Friday’s positive price action following remarks out of the Jackson Hole meeting. A large bullish hammer-like candle formed with the open at the upper end of the support zone and the high just below the 50 day moving average. The stochastic oscillator has made a bullish crossover and has moved out of an oversold condition, the MacD is attempting a bullish crossover, and Chaikin money flow has jumped into positive territory after a spike in overall volume.
Technical Analysis of The S&P 500 Chart on Multiple Timeframes
The daily ranges of the major market indices have been flat and narrow over the last two months, and the sedate sideways movement translates to weekly charts that look somewhat fatigued and poised for modest pullbacks.
Using the S&P 500 for illustration, the August/July period is made up of two horizontal channel consolidations that can be drawn as a rising channel. The index has moved in a number and variety of channel consolidations for over the last year, and breakouts or breakdowns from these patterns have been good predictors of the short and/or intermediate term direction.
The RSI has moved below its 21 period average and center line on this timeframe and the MacD has made a bearish crossover and is tracking lower. These readings reflect declining positive momentum, and Chaikin money flow moved below its signal average this month and is reflecting an increase in selling pressure.
A pullback to the 2130-2110 area of support would be modest on a percentage basis and could have a recuperative effect on the broader market, but that is, of course, if it holds.
“Spinning Tops” on the Market Averages
Call them “dojis” or “spinning tops,” but the candles that formed on the charts of the major market indices in Friday’s session are interrupted the same way, as indecisive. I’ll look at the averages in detail and on multiple time frames over the weekend.
