Miss the First Phase of the NVIDIA Rally? – Read This Before You Miss the Next One

By | September 26, 2017

Nvidia (NVDA) has its chips in all the right places. Its processors are in gaming consoles, autonomous driving components, blockchain technologies, and it was announced Tuesday it’s into local logistics or the drone delivery space. These are exciting growth areas that easily capture investor interest, and that is why the stock is up more than 60% year to date.

Last week, it looked like the stock was breaking out of a rising triangle pattern, but it quickly reversed and dropped back down. This pullback is healthy and should provide an entry point for those who missed the initial rally.

The daily chart shows the stock trading and in a horizontal triangle at the beginning of the year before breaking out of that pattern in May. It then began making a series of higher highs and higher lows forming the second rising triangle pattern. The breakout last week came after the stock gapped higher but failed after three sessions. It gapped back down into the triangle borders and back to the $170 level, which constituted a 10% pullback.

The $170 to the $167 area is an important confluence of horizontal support, triangle trend line support, and moving average support. It should deflect downside retests and act as a platform for further advances in the stock price.

Nvidia shares, however, were overbought and due for a pullback. The stochastic oscillator has been moving lower and is now below its center line, and weekly moving average convergence/divergence has been tracking a bearish divergence to price and has slipped below its signal line. These readings reflect the recent loss in price momentum. There has also been some slight deterioration in positive money flow. The Chaikin oscillator, an average of 3- and 10- day Chaikin money flow, is crossing below its center line, and the On Balance Volume indicator is crossing below its 21-period moving average.

The stock bounced strongly at the open on Tuesday but the momentum faded and it closed up only a half of a percent (still not bad). It may require several trading days to regroup before it mounts another charge toward all-time highs, and a pullback to the reinforced support zone directly above the $167 level should be viewed as a low-risk entry point, using a tight percentage stop-loss level.

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