The Energy Infrastructure Space – This Level Triggers A Breakout

By | October 9, 2018

The energy infrastructure stocks, along with the rest of the components in the energy sector, fell sharply in 2015. The Alerian Master Limited Partnership ETF (ALMP) lost nearly half its value in that time. It managed to recover more than half of that price plunge in 2016, but those gains eroded over the following year.

This year the ALMP has experienced several volatile price swings, contained for the most part within the confines of the Fibonacci retracement levels of its 2014 and 2016 overall range.

The energy space was invigorated last month when the Energy Select SPDR ETF (XLE) bounced off its rising 200 day moving average. It followed that up by breaking through its 50 day moving average and moving back up to its May high.

The ALMP lagged the broader energy space over the last month, but now it looks ready to break out of overhead resistance. It broke above the downtrend line that delineated the decline in August and September this month. Since then it has been trading below a horizontal resistance line which is being reinforced by the 50 day moving average.

Moving average convergence/divergence is making a bullish crossover, reflecting the early stage of a shift to positive price momentum. There were reports of increased retail inflows into the fund this month, and the 21 day moving average of the Chaikin money flow indicator is above its center line. But the overall reading on the indicator will have to improve to support a breakout and strong follow-up move.

The horizontal trend line at $10.90 and the 50 day moving average are the first level of resistance. A break through the weekly Fibonacci retracement at $11.19 (also the August high) is the prime objective.

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