Shift In S&P 500 Seasonality – Santa Rally Has Left The Building

By | December 11, 2018

There has been an interesting shift in an old and treasured seasonality pattern. The fabled “Santa Claus” rally period has seemingly disappeared over the last five years.

Take a look at these two seasonality charts.

The first includes data from the 10 year period between 1999 and 2018. It shows the percent of months that the S&P 500 index closed higher than it opened. The index closed higher in December 70% of the time. The typical Santa rally effect.

The second chart highlights the most recent 5 year period. Now the percent of months that the S&P closed higher than it opened in December has dropped down to just 40%.

It appears that over the near term, the market has been naughty, not nice.

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.