Author Archives: Rob Moreno

The Bottom in Bitcoin – What This Chart Pattern Projects

Many chartists and technicians have suggested the price action in Bitcoin over the last half of 2021 formed a massive Head & Shoulders top on the daily chart. The September 2021 high forming the left shoulder of the pattern, the November high the head, with the right shoulder formed by last year’s December 2021 and January 2022 price action.

This week the $40,500 neckline of this huge bearish reversal pattern was broken. If the downside price action plays out according to the textbooks Bitcoin’s price could revisit the low teens.

The typical Head & Shoulders formation suggests a downside target price projection that is measured by taking the height of the formation and subtracting it from the neckline. In Bitcoin’s case, the difference from the top of the head to the neckline is $27,500 which subtracted from the neckline number gives us a $13,250 target price. That is about a 75% drop from the neckline level.

Hopefully for the Bitcoin bulls, many chartists and technicians are wrong about this Head & Shoulders top.

NASDAQ Composite – At A Key Technical Inflection Point

The NASDAQ Composite Index has traded down to a key technical inflection point. Support for the Composite resides in an area between the 15,000 and the 14,750 levels. On the lower end of the zone is the 40 week (~200 day) moving average, and the upper bound is reinforced by the intersection of two important trend lines. One of the trend lines defines the year-to-date uptrend and the other defines horizontal support, as the Composite has been consolidating over the last month.

The NASDAQ has seen a recent decline in positive price momentum reflected in the Relative Strength Index reading. The index is moving below its center line suggesting negative price momentum. The Chaikin Indicator tracks money flow momentum. It was strong for most of last year reflecting very positive money flow, but since November it has fallen off dramatically. This suggests heavy or institutional distribution.

So the NASDAQ Composite is poised at an intersection of key technical trend line support. Additionally price momentum and money flow momentum indicators are tracking lower. This is clearly a very bearish moment for the Composite and technology stocks in general. If the 14,750 level cracks the 14,250 support level is coming right up, but it would be even less likely to hold. This is because of the pace of price and money flow momentum and direction.

SNAP – The Bull Flag Points To $100

Take a look at the Snap weekly chart. A clearly defined bull flag has formed that suggests significantly higher prices.

In July there was a spike up in price, followed by two months of sideways consolidation. The “spike” is the flagpole of the pattern and the range-bound movement between ~$80 and ~70 is the flag. The bull flag pattern has a target price that is measured by taking the height of the flagpole and adding it to the top of the flag. In Snap’s case, this methodology targets the $100 level. A large round number which like similar numbers has a “magnetic” quality the closer you get to it. Obviously, there is no technical reason for this, it is purely psychological.

On the Snap daily chart we see the July flagpole as a very large gap higher. That gap is still open and at some point it may be filled. If and when it happens is impossible to say at this point. On closer inspection the sideways ‘flag” movement has been a combination of higher lows under firm overhead resistance in the $78 area. A series of hammer candles have defined the uptrend line inside the flag and the 50 day moving average is moving in parallel to it. The Relative Strength Index is flat but tracking above its center line suggesting steady positive price momentum. The Chaikin Money Flow indicator is in negative territory and that will need to improve in order to sustain a breakout and subsequent higher prices.

The bottom line on this Snap analysis is to watch the $79 resistance level. A strong break above it suggests the potential for a move to $100.

On Apple Watch – Beware The Gravestone Doji

We mentioned earlier in the session on Twitter that we would keep a close eye on the Apple close. Price was pulling back after being higher and it was forming an upper wick on the daily candle. Unfortunately for the bulls it continued to pull back and closed right about where it started, at the lower end the session’s range. This formed a bearish reversal candle called a “gravestone doji”.

A gravestone doji’s high wick and narrow lower real body is a dangerous signal. It reflects Apple’s inability to hold new highs. The doji is only a single candle formations but when they appear at significant highs or intersect with important trendlines they have to be given serious surveillance. Be alert for confirmation with lower pries tomorrow. The gravestone doji’s signal fails after a close above the candle’s high.

Coinbase: Price And Time Are In Alignment

The daily chart of Coinbase (COIN) may have formed a double bottom. Increased buying pressure after a period of consolidation suggests the current path of least resistance is higher.

The May and June lows first stood out to me on the Coinbase chart. There was selling going into the May low and there is buying coming off the June low. The buying is being confirmed by the positive reading on the Chaikin money flow indicator. These two lows mark a period of consolidation on the chart that was preceded by a downtrend. In fact, the cycle tool tells us that both the downtrend period nd the consolidation period were exactly 24 trading days. If we assume that the stock should enter a rally period now, then it should last another cycle or 24 trading days. This projects another high in the stock price around August 27th.

This is a very neat and clean interprutation of the chart. A number of indications line up perfectly. I suspect the end result will not play out as picture perfectly as I have presented it. The chart was picked to illustrate the classic behavior of stocks moving between rally or downtrend and periods of consolidation. There is not enough time on the chart for the cycle tool to have that much relevance. I pointed it out as a coincident indication. The positive money flow reading and the realtive strength indicator both moving over their centerlines are more meaningful. They represent positive price and money flow.

Let’s see how this chart action plays out and what we can learn from it.

Preparing For Next Week: A Multiple Time Frame Review Of The Major Market Indices

Last week could have been a transitional period for the major market averages. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rolled over and sliced through its 50 day moving average, accelerating lower in Friday’s session. The decline in the S&P 500 Index began on Tuesday and picked up speed as the week progressed closing below its 50 day average. On the other hand the NASDAQ Composite, near its April and February highs, fought to hold that position. But the weight of the Friday decline in the broader market became too much and the Composite closed near its daily low.

This is how last week’s action looked intraday on a 30 minute chart:

On the daily time frame the declines look as you would expect deeper for the Dow and more subdued for the NASDAQ, with the S&P was somewhere in the middle. Downside Dow volume on Friday was large, about 70% greater than the 50 day moving average of volume. This onslaught of selling pressure took the Stochastic Oscillator into a deeply oversold condition. Bounded oscillators like the stochastic oscillator can stay in an oversold or overbought condition for long periods, but the more optimistic take is that the Dow attempts to moderate about the middle of next week.

Often the greater truth about price direction over the short-to-intermediate term is found on the weekly timeframe. This is how last week’s price action played out on our index charts.

These trend lines however arbitrary have been on these charts for some time. The Dow has sliced through its uptrend line, the S&P is resting precariously on its trend line, and the Composite, again is retesting previous highs. What does appear bearish about the action on the NASDAQ chart is the fact that prior to this week the Dow and the S&P were trending higher. The Naz, however, has ben trending sideways in a horizontal channel. In that context with the Dow and the S&P potentially breaking down the Composite is more likely, in my opinion, to follow lower than lead higher.

What about the monthly timeframe, is it too early to gain some information form those charts?

The monthly S&P 500 chart shows the strong rally that began in April 2020 and continued for over a year. This last April was a particularly strong month followed by a neutral May “doji” candle. (Some of you may know where I am going with this.) If the index continues lower next week and closes out the month near its lows, it would form a large dark June candle. This April-May-June pattern of strong up-month candle, neutral or doji-like month candle, completed by a strong dark or down-month candle, is called an eveningstar pattern. It represents a transition in investor sentiment from bullishness-to a more neutral position-to bearishness, and it is considered a fairly reliable reversal sign at or near market tops. A previous eveningstar-like pattern formed on the monthly chart and it marked the conclusion of the 2019 rally.

The overall conclusions to be drawn from this analysis is that all three of the indices have a high probability of continued downside early next week, with possible moderation by mid-week. This Friday’s close will be as significant as was last Friday’s close. A lower Friday close would form a large dark candle on the monthly chart. It would also most probably mean that the NASDAQ Composite had come off its third attempt at moving through the upper channel bound and would probably have dropped below its 50 day moving average. Then there would be talk of the “illusive triple top”. On the other hand, the best case scenario for next week is mid-week moderation and a strong close to the week.

Either way expect volatility next week. It will difficult to trade and should, in my opinion, be observed from the sidelines. There will be a lot to learn from observing next week’s action. I’ll be watching the S&P’s movement near its 50 day average and the integrity of the uptrend line on its weekly chart. On the DJIA daily chart the 3300 level, which was the March high, should supply some support. The NASDAQ Composite is the tricky one. It has room to move around within the sideways channel it has been in for so long, and its a wide range.

Drilling down on the Composite my focus will be on the uptrend line within the channel drawn off the May low to the current high. The next level of support below that trend line is the 50 day moving average. A break below that average is trouble. Of course, channel resistance is closer than channel support and the Naz spent most of last week testing the upper bound. A break out is a possibility, you know what they say, “there is no such thing as a triple top”. But I do not think it is very likely.

In conclusion, be patient and remember that your first priority as a trader is to protect your capital.

Double Eveningstar Pattern On The Dow Jones Industrial Average Chart

What is an eveningstar pattern and what does it mean when there are two eveningstar patterns on a chart.

An eveningstar is defined by Investopedia as:

The evening star pattern is considered a very strong indicator of future price declines. Its pattern forms over a period of three days:

1. The first day consists of a large white candle signifying a continued rise in prices.
2. The second day consists of a smaller candle that shows a more modest increase in price.
3. The third day shows a large red candle that opens at a price below the previous day and then closes near the middle of the first day.

The sequence of candles reflects a transition in investor sentiment from bullishness, to neutrality, and concluding with bearishness. It is usually seen at tops and is a bearish reversal signal. An eveningstar pattern formed on the Dow Jones Industrial Chart last week and a second formed by the end of trading on Tuesday. One eveningstar is negative but for a second to immediately follow the first and make a lower high should be particularly concerning to bulls.

In addition, the NASDAQ Composite has been sending a negative message since the beginning of the month. A close look at the price action on its daily chart shows the formation over the last three days of another eveningstar. And yes there is an eveningstar formation on the S&P 500 chart.

Exhaustion Gap On The Alphabet Chart – The Rally May Be Coming To A Conclusion

The rally in Alphabet (GOOGL) may be over. This is a pretty bold statement considering the strength in the stock over the last six months. I’m not making a prediction but rather reporting on a technical condition on the chart and its implications for price going forward. That’s what good technical analysis does, it suggests possibilities and probabilities. Good traders construct a trading thesis around those likelihoods.

The Alphabet (GOOGL) daily chart is highlighted with three different but related types of price gaps. They are the breakaway gap, the runaway or measuring gap, and the exhaustion gap. This particular sequence of gaps suggest that the rally in the stock has reached an end and it is now vulnerable to a serious pullback.

Let’s take a look at the Alphabet gaps and their technical definitions and significance. The first gap on the chart occurred in November last year and it is called a breakaway gap. A breakaway gap usually occurs on heavy volume and usually signals the start of a significant move. After that initial gap the stock moved sideways and slightly higher into February of this year. Then in February it gapped higher a second time. This second gap is called a measuring or runaway gap. A measuring gap is a sign of continued strength and usually occurs about halfway through the rally move. Alphabet’s measuring gap was exactly in the middle range of what would be the overall range of the rally.

Finally, a shooting star candle gapped up in Wednesday’s session. A shooting star is a candle with a high upper wick or shadow and a lower range close. It reflects an inability to hold a higher price level and, in Alphabet’s case, is made more significant by another gap opening. This gap is called an exhaustion gap, the third and final phase in the three gap sequence. It signals the conclusion of a rally.

Of course, confirmation is key to any pattern target objective or technical indication. A close below the exhaustion gap within the next several days would suggest that the move in Alphabet had come to a conclusion. Follow-through price action will be required to fulfill the most bearish implications of the three gap sequence.

Bitcoin – The Chart Pattern Targets $70,000

Whatever you want to call Bitcoin, a digital currency, a store of value, or a separate asset class of its own, it charts like an equity. It goes through periods of consolidation followed by rally periods. This price action is a function of investor interest and sentiment. The more interest in a stock, the more volume, and the better it charts. That’s why I disagree with those who say that volume analysis is dead.

I look at volume the same way mathematicians look at the “law of large numbers”. The greater the number of participants that are involved in the pricing of a stock, the better the quality of information that is revealed in the charts. Recent institutional interest in Bitcoin has increased overall volume and consequently the price patterns, in my opinion, chart with more structure and consequently more reliability. Specifically, price has traded around well-defined technical levels on the daily chart. Let’s take a look.

The daily chart shows Bitcoin moving higher this year. In the process it has gone through two periods of horizontal consolidation that have similar characteristics. The first played out in the first five weeks of the year. Bitcoin began the period by trading up to an early high in the first two weeks of January, then retraced that early move in the second half of the month. It found support at the 50 day moving average at the $30,000 level. Then it jumped back up to its old high in the $42,00 area which was prior resistance. As the rebound move off the low was underway the Relative strength Index crossed over the 21 day moving average of the index. It eventually eclipsed the 50 center line level. At the same time, the Chaikin Oscillator, a measure of price momentum, crossed above its 21 period moving average. A large white candle ultimately took Bitcoin through $42,000 resistance and signaled the start of a repeating process.

The second Bitcoin channel began like the first with an early rally up to its eventual channel high, this time situated at the $57,500 level. This second rally run was nearly identical in price range to the first rally range. It was a move of approximately $13,500. When the second target priced was reached, Bitcoin’s price fell back down to support, again, near its 50 day moving average. The bounce that followed saw bullish crossovers on the RSI and Chaikin Oscillator like the the crossovers on these indicators in the first rally. Bitcoin’s price moved back up to its previous high at the top of the channel around mid-March. This second process of rally that defines the range, a retracement, and then bounce back up to the old high, took exactly the same number of weeks as the first series. So, the price range was basically the same and the time for the process to play out was basically the same. This reflects similarity in both time and price.

Now Bitcoin is breaking above the second channel high. The question is will the process repeat a third time? My guess is probably not as precisely as the earlier patterns. But there is a good chance that the measured move off the second channel will be met after some backing-and-filling. That is a target price of about $70,400. The institutional interest and the current move over $60,000 has got to have converted many traders into HODLers and many skeptics into believers. Bitcoin has become a force to be reckoned with and however you define the force, it is powering price from the lower left of the chart to the upper right.

Ten Tradable Stock Charts with Positive Price and Money Flow Momentum

I scan primarily for stocks with a combination of positive price momentum as measured by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and positive money flow momentum as suggested by the Chaikin Oscillator. You can scroll through the “Chart School Technical Indicator” section of for information on these two indicators. Then from that list I drill down and pick out stocks with strong positive candles that appear to be moving out or preparing to move out of consolidation or base patterns. These are usually safe and profitable trading candidates.
However, the price action over the last week has been erratic to say the least. So use caution when trading, keep stops tight, and follow your discipline.

Here are some candidates for Monday: